Nostradamus

There is an urban legend that says that events happen in thirty-year cycles. Well, more or less thirty years. In 1973-1974, OPEC, (the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries), imposed an oil embargo which caused gas prices to rise 70%. There were hour-long lines at the gas pumps. The American public was unprepared for this crisis and the Nixon administration would do virtually nothing to alleviate the situation. At that time, oil was the lifeblood of industralized nations. Today the effect of high-priced oil affects just about every person on this planet.

Today, high oil prices have a deeper impact in America. Beyond the pain in the pocket book and spiralling inflationary costs, the out of control price of gas erodes into the psyche of our nation. This is a culture founded on the ideals of freedom and that anything is possible through hard work and a little ingenuity. Americans need to know that they have the liberty to traverse the wide open spaces either by road or air. To deny them this right is to deny the American people their freedom. The high price of crude oil is doing exactly just that now. Today, the government is just as hapless now as the Nixon administration was thirty-plus years ago.

To compound the angst today, we do not understand the cause of this price surge in oil. At least in 1973-1974 we could look to OPEC (and blame them). At least we knew that OPEC could be cajoled and appeased into lifting their embargo. After all, OPEC needed their petrodollar revenues just as we need their oil.

The situation today is similar but strikingly different. The robber barons of yore have changed subtly and as far as we can tell - have no social conscience. One of the largest producers in OPEC today is Russia. Yes, Russia, that one-time bastion of collectivist Communist thought through their nationalized oil producing corporation, Gazprom, is estimated to have the world’s third largest proven oil reserves at approximately 119 billion barrels behind only Saudi Arabia (263 billion barrels) and Iran (133 billion barrels). Unlike Saudi Arabia which is producing at near capacity, Gazprom is only just beginning to gear up production. As of May 2008, as measured by its market capitalization, Gazprom is the world’s third largest corporation. It is with no comfort that we read of the organized crime subculture that has penetrated many aspects of Russian life since the fall of Communism and the power vacuum that ensued.

This is all known you may say but what is its significance?

The problem is this: America is at the mercy of foreign oil producers. Saudi Arabia is our so-called ally so long as the current ruling family remains in power. Iran would not be sympathetic to anything that helps the United States, to put it mildly. How about Russia? Russia would like to develop a stranglehold on the energy market and bleed us, the United States along with the European Union and China, dry in the next twenty years.

We have to act quickly and decisively. With the spectre of global warming upon us, It is not going to be easy or pleasant but here are some of the things that should be done today:

Lower the speed limit to 60 miles per hour on our freeways (not 55).

Open up the ANWR (Artic National Wildlife Reserve) to oil exploration.

Have the President halt, indefinitely, stockpiling oil into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (US SPR) until this crisis is over.At least this much has been accomplished.

Ease legislation on offshore oil-drilling.

Force automakers to produce more fuel-efficient vehicles by imposing special taxes on SUVs and other gas-guzzlers.

Impose higher registration fees for existing SUVs and high fuel consumption vehicles.

Develop biofuels but more importantly, develop and refine coal-to-liquid fuel technologies like the Fischer-Tropsch process that was used by Hitler in World War II.

Begin a process to redesign our existing cities to more effectively implement mass transit systems. This is easier said than done but we have to start looking in this direction.

Provide tax-breaks for jobs that telecommute.

These are just a few suggestions and may have only a negligible impact on the current fuel prices. The forces that ultimately control gas prices may ease up America and the rest of the world make a concerted effort to develop serious alternative technologies like synthetic fuels or hydrogen cell technologies. The analogy is that of the drug pusher, his junkie cannot afford his high prices and is looking for relief like a drug rehab program so the pusher provides a few more freebies (in this case, allows the price to drop to make it not longer feasible to continue alternate fuel development) to string his victim along.

Your comments and ideas are urgently needed. If anything, show that you care and contribute positively to alleviating a crisis that faces us all today. I leave you this thought for now.

A few hundred years ago, the inhabitants on Easter Island faced severe environmental, social and spiritual hardships. They thought that their gods had abandoned them and the oceans had drowned the rest of humanity. They thought that they were the only ones left alone in this world. Without hope and in dire despair, the natives of Easter Island fell upon their neighbors in continual bloodthirsty conflict. They cast down their Moa (statues) and engaged in unspeakable carnage and destruction. Then one day, amidst all this mayhem and misery, European explorer ships appeared on the horizon. Let us not lose hope and faith. Let us not despair but rather let us reason together and find a workable solution (or solutions) through consensus. In this, the eve of one of our darkest hours.

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